Causes of Haze (COHA)
Scope of Work

This page outlines the tasks that will be completed by DRI and its’ subcontractors for the initial phase of the Causes of Haze Contract.  Completion of these tasks is necessary to answer the causes of haze questions listed in the RFP and will provide either some of all of the information needed to answer each sub-question. More detailed information regarding the technical approach appears in our original proposal titled “Causes of Haze in the Western United States” (June 11, 2002) and the revisions given in our response to the request for clarification of our proposal (titled “DRI Clarification to WRAP Causes of Haze Proposal”, dated August 5, 2002).

A matrix of the analysis methods proposed for the study (some only in later study phases) and the questions addressed by each analysis method in shown in Table 1.

Task 1: Emissions density maps (supports questions 3a., 3b.,3c., 3e., 3g.)
Gather emissions data and prepare emissions density maps for the WRAP region and nearby areas in Canada and Mexico for SO2, NOX, NH3, PM2.5, PM10, organic carbon, and elemental carbon for the WRAP region and nearby areas in Mexico and Canada. Locations of large point sources and urban areas will be noted.
These will be used to:
- Help in interpreting the aerosol component data;
- Determine relationship of sources to the Class I areas;
- Interpreting results of backtrajectory analysis;
- To examine relationships between mesoscale meteorological transport and efforts of the sources upon Class I areas (next phase of study)

Task 2: Monitoring site setting description (supports question 1c.)
Describe the IMPROVE/IMPROVE protocol monitoring sites representing Class I areas in regards to:
- Their representation of the Class I area and nearby Class I areas;
- Relationship to terrain features, bodies of water, etc.;
- Proximity to major point sources, cities, etc. Information from the emissions compilation described above will be quite useful.

Task 3: Meteorological setting of monitoring sites (supports question 2d.)
Assess the meteorological setting of the sites with respect to:
- Expected mesoscale flow patterns of interest (sea/land breeze, mountain/valley winds, convergence zones,etc.);
- Orographic precipitation patterns (i.e. favored for precipitation, or in rain-shadow);
- Inversion layers;
- Potential for transport from cities and other significant sources/source areas.

A more detailed assessment will be done in the second phase of the study.

Task 4: Aerosol data analysis (supports questions 1a., 1b., 1c., 1d., 3c., 3h.)
- Gather aerosol data for all sites in the WRAP region
- Prepare descriptive statistics and interpretation for the aerosol data for all sites with monitoring data; individual components as well as reconstructed extinction will be included;
- Document and interpret the spatial and seasonal patterns for aerosol components
- Determine best 20%, middle 60%, and worst 20% reconstructed extinction days and their seasonal patterns at each site;
- Compile and describe spatial and seasonal patterns of aerosol components frequency distributions.
- Interprete aerosol component data in light of the emissions sources and monitoring site settings analyses from the previous tasks and the backtrajectory analyses described in the next task.
- Use cluster analysis to group sites having similar patterns in aerosol component contributions to haze.

Task 5: Backtrajectory analysis (supports questions 2a., 2c., 2e., 3a.)
- Gather backtrajectory endpoint data
- Compute and map backtrajectory summary statistics including residence time by season, and best 20% and worst 20% reconstructed extinction and aerosol components for all sites with 5 years or more of data.
- Prepare conditional probability maps for high and low extinction and aerosol components.
- Interpret the maps using emissions density and location information, and site setting information obtained from tasks listed earlier.

Task 6: Conceptual model development (supports overall goal of determining causes of haze)
- Develop preliminary conceptual models regarding the sources of haze at every Class I area in the WRAP region;
- Note uncertainties and limitations of the conceptual models;
- Suggest methodologies to refine the conceptual models in the next phase of the study.

Task 7: Reporting
- Make all the information gathered available over the Internet in the form of a “virtual report”;
- Coordinate closely with appropriate WRAP participants and the WRAP project officer.

Deliverables

The deliverable is a virtual report available over the Internet containing the information described in the above tasks. Progress made toward answering each Cause of Haze question and the uncertainty or remaining work to be done to address the questions will be described.